基于SPEI和MI分析陕西省干旱特征及趋势变化

丁怡博,徐家屯,李亮,蔡焕杰,孙亚楠

Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Its Trend Change in Shaanxi Province Based on SPEI and MI

YiBo DING,JiaTun XU,Liang LI,HuanJie CAI,YaNan SUN

表3 HadGEM2-ES模式2006—2018年RCP2.6与RCP8.5情景下干旱指数误差比较

Table 3 Comparison of drought index error under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for HadGEM2-ES model 2006-2018

干旱指数 Drought index RCP情景 RCP scenario RMSE 陕北 Northern Shaanxi 关中 Central Shaanxi plain 陕南 Southern Shaanxi 陕西 Shaanxi MI RCP2.6 0.306 0.563 0.378 0.416 RCP8.5 0.149 0.309 0.317 0.258 SPEI RCP2.6 0.505 0.720 0.576 0.596 RCP8.5 0.427 0.597 0.563 0.522