Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major maize production areas in China. Agro-climatic resources have obviously changed, which will seriously affect crop growth and development in this region. It is important to investigate the contribution of climate change adaptation measures to the yield and resource use efficiency to improve our understanding of how we can effectively ensure high yield and high efficiency in the future. In this study, we divided the study area into five accumulated temperature zones (ATZs) based on growing degree days (GDD). Based on the meteorological data, maize data (from agro-meteorological stations) and the validated APSIM-Maize Model, we first investigated the spatial distributions and temporal trends of maize potential yield of actual planted cultivars, and revealed the radiation use efficiency (RUE) and heat resource use efficiency (HUE) from 1981 to 2017. Then according to the potential growing seasons and actual growing seasons, we identified the utilization percentages of radiation (P_R) resource and heat resource (P_H) for each ATZ under potential production from 1981 to 2017. Finally, we quantified the contributions of cultivar changings to yield, P_R and P_H of maize. The results showed that during the past 37 years, the estimated mean potential yield of actual planted cultivars was 13 649 kg ha^–1, ranged from 11 205 to 15 257 kg ha^–1, and increased by 140 kg ha^–1 per decade. For potential production, the mean values of RUE and HUE for the actual planted maize cultivars were 1.22 g MJ^–1 and 8.58 kg (°C d)^–1 ha^–1. RUE showed an increasing tendency, while HUE showed a decreasing tendency. The lengths of the potential growing season and actual growing season were 158 and 123 d, and increased by 2 and 1 d per decade. P_R and P_H under potential production were 82 and 86%, respectively and showed a decreasing tendency during the past 37 years. This indicates that actual planted cultivars failed to make full use of climate resources. However, results from the adaptation assessments indicate that, adoption of cultivars with growing season increased by 2–11 d among ATZs caused increase in yield, P_R and P_H of 0.6–1.7%, 1.1–7.6% and 1.5–8.9%, respectively. Therefore, introduction of cultivars with longer growing season can effectively increase the radiation and heat utilization percentages and potential yield.

Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a significant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4°C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system (SRCS), early triple cropping rice system (ETCRS), medium triple cropping rice system (MTCRS), and late triple cropping rice system (LTCRS) moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11% during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10% for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.