Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2015, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 1130-1141.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60996-5

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Impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and avian influenza on U.S. meat demand

 Jianhong E Mu, Bruce A McCarl, Amy Hagerman, David Bessler   

  1. 1、Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis 97330, USA
    2、Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station 77840, USA
    3、Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins 80526, USA
    4、Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station 77840, USA
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-25 出版日期:2015-06-05 发布日期:2015-06-11
  • 通讯作者: Jianhong E Mu,tel: +541-737-3781, E-mail: mujh1024@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:Bruce A McCarl, E-mail: mccarl@tamu.edu; Amy Hagerman,E-mail: amy.d.hagerman@aphis.usda.gov; David Bessler,E-mail: d-bessler@tamu.edu;

Impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and avian influenza on U.S. meat demand

 Jianhong E Mu, Bruce A McCarl, Amy Hagerman, David Bessler   

  1. 1、Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis 97330, USA
    2、Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station 77840, USA
    3、Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins 80526, USA
    4、Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station 77840, USA
  • Received:2014-01-25 Online:2015-06-05 Published:2015-06-11
  • Contact: Jianhong E Mu,tel: +541-737-3781, E-mail: mujh1024@gmail.com
  • About author:Bruce A McCarl, E-mail: mccarl@tamu.edu; Amy Hagerman,E-mail: amy.d.hagerman@aphis.usda.gov; David Bessler,E-mail: d-bessler@tamu.edu;

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摘要： This paper examines the U.S. meat demand impacts of the announced outbreaks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and avian influenza (AI). Findings indicate that beef and chicken demand was negatively affected by BSE and AI disease outbreaks. Specifically, in the short run, U.S. consumers shift demand due to both outbreaks but more so due to domestic disease outbreaks than for outbreaks occurring overseas-the impact of U.S. AI outbreaks is about 0.5% for beef and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is around –0.42% for beef and 0.4% for pork, respectively. Regarding the BSE shock on meat demand, there is a high rate of beef demand adjusted from disturbance to the long-run equilibrium and a lower adjustment rate for chicken demand because of the repeated outbreaks of AI worldwide. In the long run, information related to severe, persistently recurring overseas animal disease outbreaks changes U.S. consumers’ meat consumption patterns. Although effects of animal diseases on U.S. meat demand were statistically significant, the magnitudes were small-the impact of WHO reported human death numbers for AI is 0.005% for beef, –0.002% for pork, and –0.006% for chicken and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is 1.1% for pork and –0.7% for chicken.

关键词: avian influenza , bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) events , meat demand , demand estimation

Abstract: This paper examines the U.S. meat demand impacts of the announced outbreaks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and avian influenza (AI). Findings indicate that beef and chicken demand was negatively affected by BSE and AI disease outbreaks. Specifically, in the short run, U.S. consumers shift demand due to both outbreaks but more so due to domestic disease outbreaks than for outbreaks occurring overseas-the impact of U.S. AI outbreaks is about 0.5% for beef and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is around –0.42% for beef and 0.4% for pork, respectively. Regarding the BSE shock on meat demand, there is a high rate of beef demand adjusted from disturbance to the long-run equilibrium and a lower adjustment rate for chicken demand because of the repeated outbreaks of AI worldwide. In the long run, information related to severe, persistently recurring overseas animal disease outbreaks changes U.S. consumers’ meat consumption patterns. Although effects of animal diseases on U.S. meat demand were statistically significant, the magnitudes were small-the impact of WHO reported human death numbers for AI is 0.005% for beef, –0.002% for pork, and –0.006% for chicken and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is 1.1% for pork and –0.7% for chicken.

Key words: avian influenza , bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) events , meat demand , demand estimation