Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60992-8

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2015, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 1092-1100.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60992-8

Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

DONG Wan-lu, WANG Xiao-bing, YANG Jun

1、Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China
2、University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R.China
3、School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, P.R.China

收稿日期:2014-07-07 出版日期:2015-06-05 发布日期:2015-06-11
通讯作者: WANG Xiao-bing, E-mail: xbwang.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
The funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71373255), the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2012RC102) and the National Maize Industrial Technical System, China (nycytx-02).

Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

DONG Wan-lu, WANG Xiao-bing, YANG Jun

1、Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China
2、University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R.China
3、School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, P.R.China

Received:2014-07-07 Online:2015-06-05 Published:2015-06-11
Contact: WANG Xiao-bing, E-mail: xbwang.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
The funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71373255), the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2012RC102) and the National Maize Industrial Technical System, China (nycytx-02).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China’s per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.

关键词: feed demand , food consumption pattern , partial equilibrium model

Abstract: China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China’s per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.

Key words: feed demand , food consumption pattern , partial equilibrium model

DONG Wan-lu, WANG Xiao-bing, YANG Jun. Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1092-1100.

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Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

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