Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60610-3

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2013, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (12): 2292-2299.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60610-3

Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network

LI Zhe-min, CUI Li-guo, XU Shi-wei, WENG Ling-yun, DONG Xiao-xia, LI Gan-qiong , YU Hai-peng

Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, P.R.China

收稿日期:2013-01-29 出版日期:2013-12-01 发布日期:2013-12-17
通讯作者: XU Shi-wei, Tel: +86-10-82109902, E-mail: xushiwei@caas.cn
作者简介:LI Zhe-min, Tel: +86-10-82105203, E-mail: lizhemin@caas.cn
基金资助:
This research was financially supported by the National KeyTechnology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04), the 948 Program of Ministry of Agriculture, China (2013-Z1).

Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network

LI Zhe-min, CUI Li-guo, XU Shi-wei, WENG Ling-yun, DONG Xiao-xia, LI Gan-qiong , YU Hai-peng

Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, P.R.China

Received:2013-01-29 Online:2013-12-01 Published:2013-12-17
Contact: XU Shi-wei, Tel: +86-10-82109902, E-mail: xushiwei@caas.cn
About author:LI Zhe-min, Tel: +86-10-82105203, E-mail: lizhemin@caas.cn
Supported by:
This research was financially supported by the National KeyTechnology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04), the 948 Program of Ministry of Agriculture, China (2013-Z1).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China. In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network, the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension, and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error. Finally, this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA. The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs. The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.

关键词: chaos theory , chaotic neural network , neural network technology , short-term prediction , weekly retail price of eggs

Abstract: This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China. In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network, the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension, and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error. Finally, this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA. The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs. The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.

Key words: chaos theory , chaotic neural network , neural network technology , short-term prediction , weekly retail price of eggs

LI Zhe-min, CUI Li-guo, XU Shi-wei, WENG Ling-yun, DONG Xiao-xia, LI Gan-qiong , YU Hai-peng. Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2013, 12(12): 2292-2299.

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Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network

Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network

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