Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2017, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (02): 486-496.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(15)61285-0

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

  

  • 收稿日期:2015-09-08 出版日期:2017-02-20 发布日期:2017-01-31

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

XU Lei, ZHANG Qiao, ZHANG Jing, ZHAO Liang, SUN Wei, JIN Yun-xiang   

  1. Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China

  • Received:2015-09-08 Online:2017-02-20 Published:2017-01-31
  • Contact: XU Lei, Tel: +86-10-82105209, Fax: +86-10-82106261, E-mail: xulei02@caas.cn
  • Supported by:

    This work was jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41201551) and the Project of Science and Technology Innovation in Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science (CAAS-ASTIP-201X-AII-01) and the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund in Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS (2015-J-16).

PDF

Abstract: Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies.  This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism.  Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain.  By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distribution.  Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster.  The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of “diminishing marginal loss”, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing.  Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually.  In response to ensure China’s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.

Key words: extreme meteorological disaster, grain production, danger degree of hazard-induced factors, vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, Jilin Province in China