中国农业科学

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我国主要粮食作物耕地基础地力的时空变化分析

李玉浩1,王红叶2*,崔振岭1,营浩1,曲潇琳2,张骏达2,王新宇2 #br#   

  1. 1中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 1001932农业农村部耕地质量监测保护中心,北京 100125
  • 出版日期:2021-11-26 发布日期:2021-11-26

Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Variation of Cultivated Land

LI YuHao1, WANG HongYe2, CUI ZhenLing1, YING Hao1, ZHANG JunDa2, QU XiaoLin2, WANG XinYu2   

  1. 1College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193; 2Cultivated Land Quality Monitoring and Protection Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125
  • Published:2021-11-26 Online:2021-11-26

摘要: 目的耕地基础地力是实现粮食作物高产稳产的基石,明确我国主要粮食作物耕地基础地力时间变化趋势及空间变异特征为保障我国粮食安全、提升耕地质量提供重要理论支撑。【方法】本研究基于1988—2019年国家耕地质量长期定位监测网络,选取每个监测点自建点开始1—5年不施肥处理的空白区与农民常规施肥处理的常规区的长期监测数据,分析我国玉米、水稻和小麦三大粮食作物产量以及基础地力贡献率的时空变化情况及其影响因素。【结果】30多年来我国粮食作物产量和耕地基础地力随时间变化整体呈现增加趋势,作物产量年增长速度呈无肥区<常规区,水稻<小麦<玉米的变化规律。玉米、小麦、水稻无肥区产量分别从1988年的2 3701 7123 111 kg·hm-2至2019年的4 8523 2584 167 kg·hm-2,增幅分别为104.7%90.2%34.0%玉米、小麦、水稻常规区产量分别从1988年的5 3563 2965 970 kg·hm-2至8 8596 5157 825 kg·hm-2,增幅分别为65.4%97.6%31.0%。我国三大粮食作物2015—2019基础地力贡献率为52.7%,相较1988—1994年的45.4%显著增加了7.3个百分点;其中,玉米基础地力贡献率为54.3%比1988—1994年的42.1%显著增加12.2个百分点;水稻基础地力贡献率为53.3%比1988—1994年的46.6%显著增加6.7个百分点;小麦基础地力贡献率随年份整体呈增长趋势,且相较玉米和水稻整体偏低。三大粮食作物基础地力贡献率空间分布差异较大,东北区、黄淮海区较高,分别为56.5%54.1%西南区、华南区次之,分别为53.7%52.9%;甘新区和青藏区最低,分别仅为38.7%40.4%利用随机森林模型对三大粮食作物系统中影响基础地力贡献率的土壤因素进行重要性排序,土壤速效钾含量、土壤有效磷含量和土壤pH分别是影响玉米、小麦和水稻基础地力贡献率的最关键因素。【结论】30多年来,我国三大粮食作物耕地基础地力不断提升,但地区间差异较大、整体水平仍然较低,远低于欧美发达国家水准;土壤速效钾、有机质含量以及土壤容重是影响玉米基础地力贡献率的最关键因素;土壤有效磷、速效钾和有机质含量是影响小麦基础地力贡献率的最关键因素;土壤pH和土壤有效磷、有机质含量是影响水稻基础地力贡献率最关键因素。


关键词: 水稻, 小麦, 玉米, 作物产量, 耕地基础地力

Abstract: Objective Soil basic productivity is the cornerstone of realizing high and stable yield for food crops. Defining the temporal change trends and spatial variation characteristics of cultivated land productivity for main food crops can provide important theoretical support for ensuring food security and improving cultivated land quality in China. Method In this study, based on the national long-term positioning monitoring network of cultivated land quality from 1988 to 2019, we selected the long-term monitoring data of the check area with non-fertilization treatment and the conventional area with farmers' fertilization treatment in the first 3-5 years since the establishment of each monitoring point. The temporal and spatial changes in yield of corn, rice and wheat and soil productivity contribution rates were analyzed in China. Result The results showed that in the past 30 years, the grain crops’ yield and soil productivity contribution rates showed an overall increasing trend with time, and the annual growth rate of crop yield showed the change law of non-fertilizer area < conventional area, rice < wheat < corn. The yield of maize, wheat and rice in the non-fertilizer area increased from 2 370 kg·hm-2, 1 712 kg·hm-2 and 3 111 kg·hm-2 in 1988 to 4 852 kg·hm-2, 3 258 kg·hm-2 and 4 167 kg·hm-2 in 2019, and increased by 104.7%, 90.2% and 34.0%, respectively. The yield of corn, wheat and rice in the conventional area increased from 5 356 kg·hm-2, 3 296 kg·hm-2 and 5 970 kg·hm-2 in 1988 to 8 859 kg·hm-2, 6 515kg·hm-2 and 7 825kg·hm-2, respectively, with the increment of 65.4%, 97.6% and 31.0%, respectively. The contribution rate of soil productivity for the three major food crops in China from 2015 to 2019 was 52.7%, which was significantly increased by 7.3% compared with 45.4% in 1988-1994. Among them, the contribution rate in maize was 54.3%, which was 12.2% higher than that of 42.1% in 1988-1994. The contribution rate in rice was 53.3%, which was 6.7% higher than that of 46.6% in 1988-1994. The soil productivity contribution rate in wheat increased with the year as a whole, and was lower than that in corn and rice as a whole. The spatial distribution of soil productivity contribution rate for the three major grain crops is quite different. The Northeast region and Huang-Huai-Hai region are higher, which are 56.5% and 54.1% respectively, followed by the Southwest region and South region, which are 53.7% and 52.9% respectively. Gan-Xin region and Qinghai-Tibet region are the lowest, only 38.7% and 40.4% respectively. The random forest model was used to rank the soil factors affecting the basic soil productivity contribution rate in the three major grain crop systems. Soil available potassium content, soil available phosphorus content and soil pH were the most key factors affecting the basic soil productivity contribution rate of corn, wheat and rice, respectively.Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the soil basic productivity for three major grain crops in China has been continuously improved, but there are great differences among regions and the overall level is still low, which is far lower than that of developed countries in Europe and United States. Soil available potassium, organic matter content and soil bulk density are the most key factors affecting maize soil basic productivity contribution rate, and soil available phosphorus, available potassium and organic matter content are the most key factors affecting wheat soil basic productivity contribution rate. Soil pH, soil available phosphorus and organic matter content are the most key factors affecting the contribution rate of rice soil basic productivity.


Key words: rice, wheat, corn, crop yield, soil basic productivity