中国农业科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (8): 1641-1649.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.08.19

• 农业经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国蔬菜生产空间集聚演变、机制、效应及政策应对

吴建寨,沈辰,王盛威,张建华,孔繁涛   

  1. 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-15 出版日期:2015-04-16 发布日期:2015-04-16
  • 通讯作者: 孔繁涛,kongfantao@caas.cn
  • 作者简介:吴建寨,E-mail:wujianzhai@caas.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41201599)

Spatial Evolution, Mechanism, Effect and Policies of Vegetable Production Agglomeration in China

WU Jian-zhai, SHEN Chen, WANG Sheng-wei, ZHANG Jian-hua, KONG Fan-tao   

  1. Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2014-10-15 Online:2015-04-16 Published:2015-04-16

摘要: 【目的】近年来,中国“大市场、大流通”的蔬菜供需格局基本形成,蔬菜产业空间布局发生了显著变化。本研究以31个省市为研究单元,系统探讨了1995—2012年中国蔬菜生产的空间集聚演变特征、效应与机制,并提出了应对政策建议,为优化生产布局、有效保障供给提供依据。【方法】基于集中度指数计算蔬菜产量最大的n个省(市/区)占全国蔬菜总产量的份额,基于基尼系数模型测度中国蔬菜生产省级层面的空间集中水平,揭示1995—2012年间中国蔬菜产业空间集聚的变动特征;应用修正的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,建立评估模型,分析蔬菜产业集聚水平、蔬菜价格、单位面积劳动力投入、单位面积资本投入等对蔬菜产值影响的显著性,揭示蔬菜生产聚集对产业发展的影响效应。【结果】研究初期中国蔬菜生产东南聚集、东多西少的空间特征在研究期内发生了显著变化。1995—2012年,西部省份产量比重提高了6个多百分点,东、西部地区产量差距梯度明显减弱;南北方向上,北方省份占全国比重提升了近5个百分点,蔬菜生产向北方转移明显。研究期内,CR4CR8两个集中度指标均是前期波动并略有提高,后期基本保持稳定并略降, 大致在 0.4和0.6之间徘徊,两者的最高点分别发生在2001年与2004年,最低是1995年与1997年;基尼系数同样呈先升后降的变化,2004年的0.5045为研究期内最高点,之后逐步下降。蔬菜生产空间集聚的变化是自然、社会、经济等多种要素共同参与导致空间重构的结果,也是蔬菜产业本身优化提升的过程。初期分布格局更加依赖光、温、水、土等自然条件,在演变过程中,科技创新使得自然因素作用降低,经济、政策等层面因素的作用逐渐突出。修正后的效应评估方程通过了F检验,并且具有较高的解释水平,基尼系数在10%的显著性水平下通过了t检验,它每提高1个百分点,蔬菜单位面积产值将增加2.48个百分点。【结论】1995—2012年,中国蔬菜生产东、西部产量差距梯度明显减弱,生产重心向北方发生转移,空间分布特征变化明显,尤其在前期更具波动性;蔬菜生产空间聚集对蔬菜产值影响显著,集聚的加强可有效促进蔬菜产值的增加;基于优化蔬菜生产空间格局角度,未来应从加强主产区建设、推进规模化与专业化生产、注重产业各环节间协同入手,促进产业健康发展。

关键词: 蔬菜生产, 空间集聚, 机制, 中国

Abstract: 【Objective】 In recent years, vegetable supply and demand pattern characterized by “large market, great circulation” has been basically formed in China. And the change of the spatial agglomeration in vegetable industry is remarkable. In this paper, the characteristics, effects, and mechanism of the spatial agglomeration evolution in China’s vegetable production from 1995 to 2012 were systematically discussed by taking 31 provinces (cities) as research units, and the policy suggestions were also proposed. This research will provide a support for optimizing production arrangement and ensuring effective supply. 【Method】 The share of n largest provinces (cities) in total production was calculated based on the index of concentration ratio. In order to reveal the characteristics of spatial agglomeration in vegetable production industry from 1995 to 2012, the spatial concentration on provincial level was measured by using Gini coefficient model. To show the effect of production agglomeration on vegetable industry development, the model based on modified Cobb-Douglas production function was built to analyze the significance of the inputs such as vegetable production agglomeration level, vegetable price, labor per unit, and investment per unit. 【Result】 The characteristic of China’s vegetable production spatial distribution clustered in Southwest, mainly in eastern China, and less in western China at the beginning of the study period was significantly changed in the research period. During 1995 to 2012, the ratio of output in western China increased 6%. The gap gradient in output between eastern and western China diminished obviously. In the vertical direction, the ratio of output in northern China increased 5% which indicated that the gravity of output had moved towards the north. During 1995 to 2012, CR4 and CR8, the two indexes of concentration ratio, were increased slightly with constant fluctuation at first, and were decreased a little to steady state at the later stage, lingering between 0.4 and 0.6. The peaks of the two indexes were hit in 2001 and 2004, and the bottoms were reached in 1995 and 1997, respectively. The Gini coefficient increased at first and decreased later then. It reached its highest level of 0.5045 in 2004 and gradually decreased after that. The spatial agglomeration of vegetable production was affected by a variety of factors such as nature, society, and economy, which could lead a space reconstruction and was also a process of industrial optimization. It was more dependent on light, temperature, water, soil, and other natural factors at the beginning, and then the economic and policy factors played more important roles in the evolution process. The modified effect evaluation equation passed F-test which meant that it had a relatively high capacity in interpretation. Gini coefficient at 10% level of significance passed t-test. The result of model showed that per unit vegetable production would increase by 2.48% when Gini coefficient increased by 1%. 【Conclusion】 From 1995 to 2012, the gap gradient of China’s vegetable production between eastern and western area diminished notably. The gravity of production moved towards the north and the characteristics of spatial distribution changed obviously, especially the volatility showed at the beginning. The impact to vegetable production due to the spatial agglomeration is significant, and strengthening the agglomeration could effectively promote the production of vegetable. In view of optimizing the spatial pattern of vegetable production, strengthening the construction of the main production areas, promoting large-scale and specialized production, and focusing on the commencement of industrial nodes collaboration should be carried out in the future to promote healthy development of vegetable industry.

Key words: vegetable production, spatial agglomeration, mechanism, China