中国农业科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (22): 4829-4836.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.22.021

• 农业经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

替代还是互补?淀粉糖与食糖在食品饮料业中的应用趋势

 司伟1, 朱海燕12   

  1. 1.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
    2.青岛农业大学经济与管理学院,青岛 266109,山东
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-03 出版日期:2013-11-15 发布日期:2013-07-23
  • 通讯作者: 司伟,Tel:010-62738579;E-mail:siweicau@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:司伟,Tel:010-62738579;E-mail:siweicau@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    教育部全国百篇优秀博士学位论文专项基金(200983)

Competitive or Complementary? The Adoption Trend of Starch-Based Syrups and Sugar in Food and Beverage Manufacturing

 SI  Wei-1, ZHU  Hai-Yan-12   

  1. 1.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083
    2.School of Economics and Management, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 26619, Shandong
  • Received:2013-05-03 Online:2013-11-15 Published:2013-07-23

摘要: 【目的】探讨淀粉糖在食品饮料业糖的需求中可能达到的市场份额,并预测淀粉糖的需求增长趋势及其潜在的经济影响。【方法】利用基于创新扩散理论的逻辑斯蒂增长模型研究淀粉糖在食品饮料工业中对食糖的替代能力随时间变化的规律,并运用需求模型预测淀粉糖在食品饮料业中替代食糖的前景。【结果】中国糖的消费市场仍处于扩张期。淀粉糖的市场份额仍有10年左右的快速增长期,然而其增长速度较之前有所减缓。2020年淀粉糖的需求量将比2011年翻一番。淀粉糖消费量的增加会降低食糖需求的增长速度,并改变多年来食糖主导糖的消费市场的局面。研究结果还表明,食品饮料业因用淀粉糖替代食糖而降低的生产成本有利于消费者,但这会增加食糖的需求价格弹性。然而,用于食品饮料加工业的淀粉糖产业的发展对玉米市场的影响有限。【结论】淀粉糖需求增长最终取决于因使用淀粉糖所能带来的成本节约。目前,淀粉糖与食糖在中国糖的消费市场中是一定意义上的互补关系,而不完全是替代关系。

关键词: 淀粉糖 , 食糖 , 食品饮料业 , 趋势预测

Abstract: 【Objective】 The objective of this paper is to investigate the likely adoption rate of starch-based syrups (SBS) in food and beverage manufacturing, project the demand growing trend of SBS and assess its economic implications for major sweetener industry participants. 【Method】 The logistic growth model that is based on the theory of innovation adoption was emploged to investigate the time pattern of adoption for SBS, and the demand model was used to project the demand for sugar and SBS. 【Result】 China’s sugar and sweetener demand are still at an expanding phase. The market shares of SBS would continue to increase rapidly about ten years with a lower growth rate compared to the previous decade. The growing SBS consumption will decrease the growth rate of demand for sugar, and change the caloric sweetener market structure which is dominated by sugar. The results also show that the decreased manufacturing costs due to the use of SBS should be passed to consumer in lower retail prices. This would make sugar demand more elasticity. The impact account for increasing adoption SBS in food and beverage manufacturing on corn market will be small. 【Conclusion】 The consumption growth of SBS ultimately depends on decreased manufacturing costs due to the use of SBS. Under current market conditions, SBS and sugar are complementary to some extent, rather than simply competitive.

Key words: starch-based syrups , sugar , food and beverage manufacturing , trend project