中国农业科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (15): 3105-3114.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.004

• 耕作栽培·生理生化·农业信息技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

2011—2050年RCP4.5新情景下东北春玉米种植布局及生产评估

 胡亚南12, 刘颖杰34   

  1. 1.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081
    2.山西省气候中心,太原 030006
    3.中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081
    4.中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-11 出版日期:2013-08-01 发布日期:2013-03-26
  • 通讯作者: 通信作者刘颖杰,E-mail:liuyingjie@cma.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:胡亚南,Tel:010-82106785;E-mail:huyanan214@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(0810017)、国家重大科学研究计划课题(2012CB955904)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY-200906020)、中国气象局气候研究开放实验室青年基金2011-2012

Planting Distribution of Spring Maize and Its Productivity Under RCP4.5 Scenario in Northeast China in 2011—2050

 HU  Ya-南12, LIU  Ying-Jie-34   

  1. 1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081
    2.Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006
    3.Public Meteorological Service Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
    4.Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2012-12-11 Online:2013-08-01 Published:2013-03-26

摘要: 【目的】研究东北地区春玉米适种区域及其生育期、产量对气候变化的响应。【方法】基于气候模式RegCM4输出的未来RCP4.5新气候情景逐日资料,采用经验频率法预测80%保证率下2011—2050年中国东北地区早、中、晚熟型春玉米种植区域时空变化,同时结合作物模型DSSAT4.5对黑龙江省晚熟品种的生育期、产量变化特征及该省因气候变化而新增的晚熟品种可能种植区内晚熟玉米的适种性进行模拟评估。【结果】RCP4.5情景下,2011—2050年东北三省≥10℃的积温呈增加趋势,早、中、晚熟型玉米品种种植界限均有不同程度的北扩或东移,可能种植范围扩大。黑龙江省2011—2050年间晚熟玉米新增可能种植区域内适宜种植晚熟品种;气候变化对原有种植区内晚熟品种生殖生长期的影响程度大于对营养生长期的影响,全生育期天数平均缩短2—11 d;产量变化存在明显空间差异,不考虑CO2肥效作用和考虑CO2肥效作用两种方案下的产量变化范围均介于±20%以内,但考虑CO2肥效作用时的产量较高。【结论】因气候条件变化而新增的春玉米种植区域的适种性需要综合考虑多方面因素来评估。未来40a玉米全生育期天数变化主要源于生殖生长期缩短,大气中CO2浓度增加带来的肥效作用可抵消一部分因温度升高产生的对玉米产量形成的不利影响。

关键词: 春玉米 , RCP4.5气候情景 , 东北 , 热量资源 , 适种性 , 生产评估

Abstract: 【Objective】The study was aiming at the response of planting suitable areas for spring maize,its growth period and production to climate change. 【Method】 Based on the daily climate data of RCP4.5 scenario calculated by the regional climate model RegCM4 in Northeast China in 2011-2050, the empirical frequency method was used to predict the changes of planting area under 80% guaranteed rate for early maturity, mid-maturity and late maturity spring maize varieties, combined with crop model DSSAT4.5 to evaluate the changes of growth period and yield, and the planting suitability at the area expanded by climate change for late maturity spring maize in Heilongjiang province in the future. 【Result】 The ≥10℃ accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend in Northeast China. The planting northern boundary of different maize varieties will be moved northward or eastward at different degrees and the probable cultivation region will be larger than before. It is suitable for late maturity variety to grow at the expanded region in Heilongjiang province in 2011-2050. The impact of climate change on reproduction growth period is going to be bigger than the vegetation growth period for late maturity variety in this following 40 years in the original planting area, which was existed in 1981-2010 in Heilongjiang province, and the whole growth period will be shortened by 2-11 days. Meanwhile, the changes of yield in the future compared with present level will have a significant spatial difference. Yield change range will be both in ±20% with considering the CO2 fertilizer effect or not, but the yield of the considered one is higher. 【Conclusion】Planting suitability of the expanded region due to climate change needs to be evaluated with many factors contained for maize. The whole growth stage change of maize is mainly caused by the shortened reproduction growth of maize. The effects of CO2 concentration enrichment in air will counterbalance a part of disadvantage of increased temperature for maize yield.

Key words: spring maize , RCP4.5 climate scenario , Northeast China , heat resources , planting suitability , production assessment