关键词: 未来气候情景, 气候变化, 种植制度北界, 冬小麦

Abstract: 【Objective】 Climate change had been a global problem. The climate will continue warming in future in China and this change will affect the agriculture in China. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the countrywide northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat - summer maize rotation and the northern limits of tropical crops in China in future climate scenario were analyzed. 【Method】 A recognized calculation method of agro-meteorological indicators were used in the study. The countrywide northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat–summer maize rotation and the northern limits of tropical crops were draw by ArcGis for three periods from 1950s to 1980, 2011 to 2040 and 2041 to 2050, according to the indices of the climate zoning index of cropping system, winter wheat and double rice northern limits, stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation and the northern limits of tropical crops. 【Result】 Compared with the results during 1950s to 1980, the northern limits of the two-cropping system and three-cropping system will move northwards during 2011 to 2040 and 2041 to 2050 . Compared with the results during 1950s to 1980, the northern limits of the two-cropping system during the 2011 to 2040 and 2041 to 2050 occurred significant spatial displacement in Shanxi and Liaoning provinces, especially in 2041 to 2050. The northern limits of the three-cropping system occurred largest spatial displacement in Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, especially in 2041 to 2050. Without the consideration for variety and social economic changing, grain yield per hectare of main cropping pattern could increase if the one-cropping system changed to two-cropping system, two-cropping system is changed to three-cropping. The northern limits of winter wheat will move northwards and westwards to different degrees in Liaoning, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai provinces，comparing with the results during 1950s to 1980. Without the consideration for other factors, grain yield will increase in the changing area if the cropping system is changed from spring wheat to winter wheat in one year, because the yield of winter wheat was normally higher than spring wheat. Considering the heat resource, the northern limits of double rice cropping area in Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Guizhou province moved northwards, especially in Zhejiang, Anhui and Hubei province. The safe Northern limit of tropical crops moved northwards, especially in Guangxi and Guangdong province. The change of limits can increase the grain yield. The stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat – summer maize moved Northwestwards in most regions, mainly caused by the increased rainfall in future in the study areas.【Conclusion】 The climate warming will cause the northwards movement of the northern limits of cropping system, and the northwards and westwards movement of the northern limits of winter wheat, and northwards movement of the northern limits of double rice and tropical crops. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat–summer maize rotation moved Northwestwards in the most regions due to the increasing rainfall.

Key words: Future climatic scenario, climate change, the northern limits of cropping system, winter wheat