|
|
|
|
|
| The prospects for China's food security and imports: Will China starve the world via imports? |
| HUANG Ji-kun1, 2*, WEI Wei2, 3, CUI Qi1, XIE Wei1 |
1 China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P.R.China
2 Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China
3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R.China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract China’s food supply and demand have significant implications for both China’s own national food security and that of the world. This study reviews China’s food security prospects and their implications, focusing on international trade in the coming decade. The results show that China’s policies for ensuring food security will be enhanced and China will move to sustainable agriculture. Most studies anticipate that China will increase its food and feed imports in the coming decade. China’s overall food self-sufficiency is likely to fall from 94.5% in 2015 to around 91% by 2025. The greatest increases in imports are likely to be soybean, maize, sugar, and dairy products. However, within the production capacity of the major exporting countries and of many food-importing developing countries, China’s additional imports of 3 to 5% of its total food consumption in the coming decade are unlikely to threaten global food security. Indeed, the projected imports of feed and several foods could provide opportunities for many exporting countries to expand their production and save global resources.
|
|
Received: 04 July 2017
Accepted:
|
| Fund: The authors acknowledge their respective financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71333013 and 71503243), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y02015004 and GJHZ1312), the Tsinghua University, China (CIRS2016-03), and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017M610710). |
|
Corresponding Authors:
Correspondence HUANG Ji-kun, Tel: +86-10-62767327, Fax: +86-10-62767145, E-mail: jkhuang.ccap@pku.edu.cn
|
Cite this article:
HUANG Ji-kun, WEI Wei, CUI Qi, XIE Wei.
2017.
The prospects for China's food security and imports: Will China starve the world via imports?. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 16(12): 2933-2944.
|
Alexandratos N. 1996. China’s projected cereals deficits in a world context. Agricultural Economics, 15, 1–16.
Ali T, Huang J K, Wang J X, Xie W. 2017. Global footprints of water and land resources through China’s food trade. Global Food Security, 12, 139–145.
Bai J F, Wahl T I, Lohmar B T, Huang J K. 2010. Food away from home in Beijing: Effects of wealth, time and “free” meals. China Economic Review, 21, 432–441.
Brown L R. 1995. Who Will Feed China? Wake-Up Call for A Small Planet. W. W. Norton & Company, New York, USA.
CAAS (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences). 2016. China Agricultural Outlook (2016–2025). China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
Cao B M, Zhao X. 2011.Supply demand projection of soybean and its products in China - based on partial equilibrium model. Chinese Rural Economy, 9, 23–36. (in Chinese)
CCCPC (Central Committee of the Communist Party of China), 2016. Recommendations for the 13th five-year plan for economic and social development. [2016-03-17]. http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016lh/2016-03/17/c_1118366322.htm (in Chinese)
CCCPC (Central Committee of the Communist Party of China), 2008. The medium- and long-term food security plan for 2008–2020. [2008-11-13]. http://www.gov.cn/test/2008-11/14/content_1148698.htm.htm (in Chinese)
Chen X. 2009. Review of China’s agricultural and rural development: Policy changes and current issues. China Agricultural Economic Review, 1, 121–135.
Chen X. 2010. Issues of China’s rural development and policies. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2, 233–239.
Chen Y F. 2005. Supply and demand of grain in China: A projection. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 4, 8–13. (in Chinese)
Chen Y F, Liu C C. 2008. China’s coarse grain supply and demand: Structural and simulation analysis based on partial equilibrium model. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 7, 53–62. (in Chinese)
Dalin C, Hanasaki N, Qiu H G, Mauzerall D L, Rodriguez-Iturbe I. 2014. Water resources transfers through Chinese interprovincial and foreign food trade. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9774–9779.
Ding L N, Xiao H F. 2014. Factors affecting the supply and demand of mutton in China and future trends-analysis and prediction based on partial equilibrium model. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 9, 22–31.
Fader M, Gerten D, Thammer M, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H, Lucht W, Cramer W. 2011. Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations, and related water and land savings through trade. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1641.
Fan S G. 1991. Effects of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in Chinese agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73, 266–275.
Fan S G, Agcaoili-Sombilla M. 1997. Why projections on China’s future food supply and demand differ. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 41, 169–190.
Fan S G, Wailes E J, Cramer G L. 1995. Household demand in rural China: A two-stage LES-AIDS model. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 77, 54–62.
FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization, the United Nations), 2017. FAOSTAT. [2017-2-19]. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
Fischer G, Shah M. 2010. Farmland investments and food security. In: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, August 2010 for the World Bank. Laxenburgh, Austria.
Gale H F, Huang K. 2007. Demand for Food Quantity and Quality in China. Economic Research Report Number 32, Economic Research Service. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington D. C.
Hejazi M, Marchant M A. 2017. China’s evolving agricultural support policies, choice, the 2nd quarter 2017. Choices, 32, 1–7.
HLPE (High Level Panel of Experts). 2015. Water for Food Security and Nutrition. A Report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security, Rome. [2017-2-19]. http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/en/
Hu X D, Wang M L, Shi Z Z. 2015. An analysis of pork supply and demand in China: A market model approach. Chinese Rural Economy, 4, 4–28. (in Chinese)
Huang J K, Bouis H. 1996. Structural Changes in the Demand for Food in Asia. Agriculture and the Environmental Discussion Paper No.11. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C.
Huang J K, Ding J P. 2016. Institutional innovation and policy support to facilitate small-scale farming transformation in China. Agricultural Economics, 47(Suppl.1), 227–237.
Huang J K, Rozelle S. 1996. Technological change: Rediscovering the engine of productivity growth in China’s agricultural economy. Journal of Development Economics, 49, 337–369.
Huang J K, Rozelle S. 2006. The emergence of agricultural commodity markets in China. China Economic Review, 17, 266–280.
Huang J K, Yang G L. 2017. Understanding recent challenges and new food policy in China. Global Food Security, 12, 119–126.
Huang J K, Yang J, Qiu H G. 2012. Reflection on the national food security strategies and policies in new era. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 3, 4–8. (in Chinese)
Huang J K, Yang J, Rozelle S. 2010. China’s agriculture: Drivers of change and implications for China and the rest of world. Agricultural Economics, 41, 47–55.
Huang K S, Gale F. 2009. Food demand in China: Income, quality, and nutrient effects. China Agricultural Economic Review, 1, 395–409.
Jin S Q, Ma H Y, Huang J K. 2010. Productivity, efficiency and technical change: Measuring the performance of China’s transforming agriculture. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 33, 191–207.
Li M. 2005. Study on China’s grain security in the new situation.Ph D thesis, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China. (in Chinese)
Lin J Y. 1992. Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. The American Economic Review, 82, 34–51.
Liu Y F, Wang M L, Hu X D, Shi Z Z, Wang H Y. 2014. Study on supply and demand of mutton market in China based on market model. Animal Economy, 50,16–22. (in Chinese)
Lv X Y. 2013. Review of mid-and long-term predictions of China’s grain security. China Agricultural Economic Review, 5, 567–582.
Lu W C, Qi H B, Li Y L. 2011. The Tendency of China’s grain supply and demand under globalization. Journal of Zhejiang University (Humanities and Social Sciences), 41, 6–18. (in Chinese)
Lu Y L, Jenkins A, Ferrier R C, Bailey M, Gordon I J, Song S, Huang J K, Jia S F, Zhang F S, Liu X J, Feng Z Z, Zhang Z B. 2015. Addressing China’s grand challenge of achieving food security while ensuring environmental sustainability. Science Advances, 1, e1400039.
Ma H Y, Huang J K, Fuller F, Rozelle S. 2006. Getting rich and eating out: Consumption of food away from home in urban China. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d’agroeconomie, 54, 101–119.
Ma Y H, Niu W Y. 2009. Forecasting on grain demand and availability of cultivated land resources based on grain safety in China. China Soft Science, 3, 11–16. (in Chinese)
McMichael P. 2000. A global interpretation of the rise of the East Asian food import complex. World Development, 28, 409–424.
MOA (Ministry of Agriculture). 2017. Agriculture Outlook Report 2017. China Agriculture Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)
NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China). 2015.China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China). 2016. China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
NEPAD (New Partnership for African Development). 2013. African Agriculture, Transformation and Outlook. In: NEPAD, November 2013. Johannesburg 1685, South Africa. p. 72 .
Ni H X. 2014. Strategic balance study on important agricultural products’ production and import in China. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 12, 25–32. (in Chinese)
Norse D, Lu Y L, Huang J K. 2014. China’s food security: Is it a national, regional or global issue? Palgrave Macmillan UK, 120, 251–302.
OECD-FAO (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations). 2016. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016–2025. [2016-07-10]. https://stats.oecd.org
Otsuka K. 2013. Food insecurity, income inequality, and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 44(Suppl.1), 7–18.
Park A, Jin H H, Rozelle S, Huang J K. 2002. Market emergence and transition: Arbitrage, transaction costs, and autarky in China’s grain markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, 67–82.
Shi Z Z, Wang M L, Hu X D. 2015. A study on beef market partial equilibrium model in China. Journal of China Agricultural University, 20, 278–290. (in Chinese)
Statista. 2017. Data is available on the website. [2017-03-11]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/201828/projection-for-total-idle-cropland-area-in-brazil-from-2010/
Qiang W L, Liu A, Cheng S K, Kastner T, Xie G. 2013. Agricultural trade and virtual land use: The case of China’s crop trade. Land Use Policy, 33, 141–150.
USDA (United State Department of Agriculture). 2013. Census of Agriculture 2012. [2013-05-02]. https://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012
USDA (the United States Department of Agriculture). 2016. 2016 International Long-Term Projections to 2025. [2016-03-22]. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-baseline-data/
Wang J X, Li Y R, Huang J K, Yan T T, Sun T H. 2017. Growing water scarcity, food security and government responses in China. Global Food Security, doi: org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.01.003
Yang Y T, Wu J X, 2014. Prediction of the changes and trend of chinese corn supply and demand based on the model of market equilibrium. Economic Problems, 198–103.
Yu X H, Abler D. 2009. The demand for food quality in rural China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91, 57–69.
Zhang F S, Chen X P, Vitousek. 2013. Chinese agriculture: An experiment for the world. Nature, 497, 33–35.
Zhou Z Y. 2016. What determines food security in China: A review of literature. Arthaniti, 15, 55–84 |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
